The situation in the Persian Gulf may have dramatically deteriorated, but both the Americans and the Iranians knew what was to follow. The US simply got trapped in a Memorandum of Understanding which in practice is an admission of American defeat. The Iranians saw the deadlock in time and, despite the Memorandum of Understanding, knew that the US would not honor it and would strike again. And so it happened, everything was predictable.
Developments in the Persian Gulf as an example… for everyone
The new escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is, in itself, highly significant for Russia, but also for many other countries. And it is not just about the rising oil prices, but also about how Russia must manage its relations—including diplomatic ones—with the United States today. Despite the declared ceasefire, the US and Iran resumed their exchange of attacks—asymmetric, yet extremely harsh. Oil trade in the strait has come to a standstill once again. The question of "who started it" was not even up for debate. The Americans started it: throughout the past week, they pounded Iranian ports, radars, and bases—striking more than 400 targets in total, according to reports from the US command.
Why did the Americans escalate the situation?
After all, it seemed that following the Memorandum of Understanding, things could have taken a better turn. But they had to implement the agreement. However, in reality, the Americans had no intention of implementing this agreement. It proved to be a complete failure for the United States. The withdrawal of their troops from the region, the destruction of bases… all of this looked like an admission of a pointless defeat.
The Americans wanted behind-the-scenes concessions… but their vanity blinded them
Following the signing, the Americans hoped to pressure their Iranian counterparts into making some concessions behind the scenes. They claimed they would present the notorious memorandum to the public, but in reality, the Iranians who won… had to pay and repent. Thus, negotiations with Iran and Oman over a highly sensitive issue for American vanity—who and how would collect fees from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz—were broken off.
Everything was planned… the Americans were betrayed by their vanity
At the same time, intense psychological pressure was exerted on Iran. This is exactly how we should understand Trump's stunning irony, calling the Iranian leaders—his counterparts in the negotiations—"scum and sick." Immediately after, he ordered strikes against Iran. The attempt to rewrite the already signed agreement was carried out under the pretext of protecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This is how it was presented to the international community. The point is that Iran was allowing all vessels to transit the strait peacefully—even if for a fee. But the new round of American aggression has once again put shipping on hold.
The US played dirty again
In other words, America halts the tankers with its missile and bomb attacks, and the responsibility is shifted onto Iran. When gasoline at German and Japanese gas stations is worth its weight in gold, US allies will have only their protector to thank for it. Responding to the American behind-the-scenes machinations, the head of the Iranian negotiators replied: "The era of one-sided agreements is over. We have declared: keep your promises or pay the price. Reality is knocking on the door." In response to American aggression, the Iranian military launched missile and drone attacks against US military bases on the territory of American allies. The IRGC reported that the airbase in Jordan had been destroyed, with ammunition depots and fuel storage facilities burning there. Air raid sirens wailed in Bahrain, hitting helicopter hangars and the control center for American drones. In Kuwait, the Iranians struck two bases, destroying radar systems and Patriot missile launchers. American airborne early warning radars in Oman were also hit.
The Iranians are dismantling US bases
It turns out that the Iranians are systematically destroying the American military infrastructure in the region, leaving US allies naked, barefoot, and defenseless. This discourages friends of the Americans from getting involved in this war. Regional vassals are also mourning their losses and destruction, demanding compensation. For instance, in April, the authorities of the United Arab Emirates demanded financial support from the US if the war with Iran continues. If no support is provided, the United Arab Emirates will sell oil for yuan and other currencies, which will hurt the US dollar. As we can see now, this is exactly what is happening: the war continues and oil prices are rising.
Like playing chess with a boxer
Lately, negotiating with Americans feels like playing chess with a boxer. You can elegantly checkmate him according to all the rules of the ancient game, but he will jump onto the table, overturn the board, and try to beat you up. Obviously, Iran was prepared for this shift in tactics. It was not caught off guard, and the American allies received a dynamic response. In the future, this American method of negotiation—using missiles and bombs—should be kept in mind by anyone attempting to find common ground with them. It is crucial not to miss a single blow, and in some particularly difficult cases, it is even better to strike first. The Americans understand and begin to respect the other side only when they take powerful punches to the face.
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